Day 1 Outlook
Marginal Risk is in Effect
Overview... VALID 02/08/2021
A few thunderstorms are possible across S, SE and SW England, where a few hundred j/kg of CAPE exist. In combination with convergence zones, a few storms could form. Over SW England, upper level support could mean a slightly higher chance of lightning here, though the saturated and short instability profiles mean that lightning could be limited. A small surface low is drifting Northwards, currently located near the IoW. This low could provide a focal point for enhanced rainfall as storms move over similar areas with heavy rain rates at times. A low-end severe area has been issued where flash flooding is a possibility.
Discussion...
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What are the Categories and What do they Mean?
The risk categories range on a scale from Marginal - High, and are based on the frequency of lightning and severity of storms. If no notably severe storms are expected, then a category will be issued based on lightning frequency. However, if notably severe storms (tornadoes, 2.5cm hail, 58mph winds) are expected then a category higher than normal may be issued depending on severe storm frequency and other factors. If a severe threat is expected, the area of interest will be highlighted, regardless of whether a category higher than usual has been issued.
